Rothman FACT Rankings

The Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments (FACT) rankings, developed by the late Dr. David Rothman, is an implementation of Bradley and Terry's "Method of Paired Comparisons" (1952), an idea first proposed in the 1920s. Dr. Rothman's FACT rankings were an original component of the Bowl Championship Series rankings.

Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments
Pro Football Rankings
(using records and scores)
through games of October 27, 2008

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
BASED ON  116 GAMES BETWEEN  32 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
 
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
 RANK TEAM               DIVISION    LOGIT   PCT   RRE  PF  PA  W  L
 
    1 Tennessee          AFC South   64.22  .902  .865 180  87  7  0
    2 N.Y. Giants        NFC East    56.89  .777  .730 191 115  6  1
    3 Carolina           NFC South   55.02  .677  .686 174 127  6  2
    4 Washington         NFC East    54.97  .662  .685 165 145  6  2
    5 Pittsburgh         AFC North   54.75  .664  .680 155 110  5  2
    6 Tampa Bay          NFC South   53.99  .631  .661 170 120  5  3
    7 Philadelphia       NFC East    53.39  .607  .646 194 137  4  3
    8 Chicago            NFC North   52.72  .601  .629 196 150  4  3
    9 Dallas             NFC East    52.56  .595  .625 202 184  5  3
   10 Arizona            NFC West    51.83  .577  .606 200 171  4  3
   11 Baltimore          AFC North   51.42  .586  .595 134 110  4  3
   12 Buffalo            AFC East    50.33  .645  .566 165 143  5  2
   13 Green Bay          NFC North   49.59  .582  .546 194 159  4  3
   14 Atlanta            NFC South   49.10  .527  .533 153 154  4  3
   15 Cleveland          AFC North   49.04  .451  .532 115 123  3  4
   16 Jacksonville       AFC South   48.56  .444  .519 141 151  3  4
   17 New Orleans        NFC South   48.41  .522  .515 216 195  4  4
   18 Indianapolis       AFC South   48.38  .432  .514 149 162  3  4
   19 New England        AFC East    48.08  .643  .506 153 132  5  2
   20 Minnesota          NFC North   47.68  .440  .495 154 167  3  4
   21 Miami              AFC East    46.69  .459  .468 145 146  3  4
   22 Denver             AFC West    46.19  .508  .455 173 195  4  3
   23 San Diego          AFC West    46.10  .463  .453 224 199  3  5
   24 N.Y. Jets          AFC East    45.17  .556  .428 182 170  4  3
   25 Houston            AFC South   43.67  .440  .389 175 185  3  4
   26 St. Louis          NFC West    42.79  .285  .367 112 201  2  5
   27 Seattle            NFC West    40.40  .343  .310 144 184  2  5
   28 Oakland            AFC West    39.16  .307  .282 107 177  2  5
   29 San Francisco      NFC West    36.81  .284  .233 171 230  2  6
   30 Kansas City        AFC West    36.26  .199  .223  99 193  1  6
   31 Cincinnati         AFC North   32.39  .100  .157 104 217  0  8
   32 Detroit            NFC North   27.93  .099  .099 114 212  0  7
 
  LN( 116- 32+1)*2 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT (APPROX. THEORY)
 
    1 St. Louis          NFC West  34 Dallas             NFC East  14 .292
    2 Kansas City        AFC West  33 Denver             AFC West  19 .334
    3 Cleveland          AFC North 35 N.Y. Giants        NFC East  14 .338
    4 N.Y. Jets          AFC East  56 Arizona            NFC West  35 .372
    5 St. Louis          NFC West  19 Washington         NFC East  17 .437
    6 Indianapolis       AFC South 31 Baltimore          AFC North  3 .447
    7 Minnesota          NFC North 20 Carolina           NFC South 10 .461
    8 Seattle            NFC West  37 St. Louis          NFC West  13 .487
    9 Miami              AFC East  38 New England        AFC East  13 .513

The schedules of all teams were interconnected after the games of Monday, September 15, 2008.

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