Rothman FACT Rankings

The Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments (FACT) rankings, developed by the late Dr. David Rothman, is an implementation of Bradley and Terry's "Method of Paired Comparisons" (1952), an idea first proposed in the 1920s. Dr. Rothman's FACT rankings were an original component of the Bowl Championship Series rankings.

Foundation for the Analysis of Competitions and Tournaments
Pro Football Rankings
(using records and scores)
through games of February 3, 2008

NATIONAL FOOTBALL LEAGUE
BASED ON  267 GAMES BETWEEN  32 TEAMS, AND NO OTHER INFORMATION
 
FOUNDATION FOR THE ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIONS AND TOURNAMENTS
 
 RANK TEAM               DIVISION    LOGIT   PCT   RRE  PF  PA  W  L
 
    1 New England        AFC East    67.37  .881  .903 655 323 18  1
    2 Dallas             NFC East    58.88  .709  .776 472 346 13  4
    3 Green Bay          NFC North   58.28  .731  .764 497 334 14  4
    4 Indianapolis       AFC South   58.11  .738  .761 474 290 13  4
    5 NY Giants          NFC East    56.88  .631  .736 458 416 14  6
    6 San Diego          AFC West    56.27  .654  .723 469 335 13  6
    7 Jacksonville       AFC South   53.59  .631  .662 462 364 12  6
    8 Philadelphia       NFC East    52.05  .520  .625 336 300  8  8
    9 Washington         NFC East    51.99  .527  .623 348 345  9  8
   10 Minnesota          NFC North   50.60  .530  .588 365 311  8  8
   11 Tennessee          AFC South   49.70  .549  .565 307 314 10  7
   12 Chicago            NFC North   48.94  .454  .545 334 348  7  9
   13 Pittsburgh         AFC North   48.28  .609  .528 422 300 10  7
   14 Detroit            NFC North   47.97  .428  .520 346 444  7  9
   15 Seattle            NFC West    47.96  .611  .520 448 347 11  7
   16 Houston            AFC South   47.67  .503  .512 379 384  8  8
   17 Tampa Bay          NFC South   47.26  .537  .501 348 294  9  8
   18 Cleveland          AFC North   46.32  .589  .476 402 382 10  6
   19 Denver             AFC West    46.06  .420  .470 320 409  7  9
   20 Buffalo            AFC East    44.87  .426  .439 252 354  7  9
   21 New Orleans        NFC South   44.19  .461  .421 379 388  7  9
   22 Carolina           NFC South   43.66  .425  .407 267 347  7  9
   23 Arizona            NFC West    42.98  .500  .390 404 399  8  8
   24 Cincinnati         AFC North   42.06  .459  .367 380 385  7  9
   25 Oakland            AFC West    41.13  .304  .344 283 398  4 12
   26 Kansas City        AFC West    41.13  .300  .344 226 335  4 12
   27 NY Jets            AFC East    39.78  .310  .311 268 355  4 12
   28 Baltimore          AFC North   38.88  .337  .291 275 384  5 11
   29 Atlanta            NFC South   38.04  .279  .272 259 414  4 12
   30 San Francisco      NFC West    36.94  .313  .248 219 364  5 11
   31 St. Louis          NFC West    34.20  .236  .195 263 438  3 13
   32 Miami              AFC East    33.06  .164  .175 267 437  1 15
 
  LN( 267- 32+1)*2 LEAST LIKELY RESULTS OF TOURNAMENT (APPROX. THEORY)
 
    1 Kansas City        AFC West  30 San Diego          AFC West  16 .209
    2 Chicago            NFC North 35 Green Bay          NFC North  7 .270
    3 Cincinnati         AFC North 35 Tennessee          AFC South  6 .311
    4 New Orleans        NFC South 41 Jacksonville       AFC South 24 .322
    5 Washington         NFC East  27 Dallas             NFC East   6 .366
    6 Minnesota          NFC North 41 NY Giants          NFC East  17 .367
    7 Atlanta            NFC South 26 Houston            AFC South 16 .388
    8 St. Louis          NFC West  37 New Orleans        NFC South 29 .406
    9 Minnesota          NFC North 35 San Diego          AFC West  17 .424
   10 Chicago            NFC North 27 Green Bay          NFC North 20 .441
   11 Seattle            NFC West  35 Washington         NFC East  14 .453

The schedules of all teams were interconnected after the games of Sunday, September 23, 2007.

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